Statement from the Fifty Second Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF52): 27-28 May 2019, Radisson Blu Hotel, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Increased likelihood of drier than normal conditions over much of Ethiopia, parts of Eritrea, South Sudan and Sudan and above normal rainfall for most of Sudan, Djibouti and parts of Ethiopia

28 May 2019, ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia: The 52nd Greater Horn Of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 52) for June, July, August and September organized by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency and partners on Mitigation of Climate Risks for Resilience building closed today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The forum brought together climate experts, decision makers, non-governmental organizations, civil society stakeholders, users of climate information and representatives of climate sensitive sectors such as Agriculture, Livestock and Food Security, Energy and Hydropower, Water Resources, Health and Public Safety, Disaster Management, Tourism and Wildlife, Settlement, Marine and Economic Planning, and the Media.

The regional consensus climate outlook for the June to September 2019 rainfall season indicates increased likelihood of drier than normal rainfall over much of Ethiopia, south-western Eritrea, South Sudan, parts of western Sudan as well as some region on the Sudan/Ethiopia border, northern and far-western Uganda, western Rwanda as well as coastal areas of Kenya and Somalia. There is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over Djibouti and surrounding lowlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, most parts of Sudan, parts of south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya and the Lake Victoria region of Uganda and Tanzania. The forecast also indicates a delay in the start of the rains by 1-3 weeks over the northern Rift Valley, the western equatorial sector, the coastal regions of Kenya and northern Somalia, and in Sudan. There is also indication of a likelihood of early cessation over eastern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and the cluster bordering Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya. These areas are also likely to experience long dry spells during the season. On the other hand, temperature forecast indicates increased likelihood of warmer than normal surface temperatures over much of the northern, eastern and south-eastern Greater Horn of Africa as well as a region over north-western South Sudan, while cooler to near normal temperatures are indicated across central parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The highlands of the equatorial sector are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions during June to September 2019 period.

A strong El NiAo this year appears unlikely

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the major global climate centres have noted that a strong El NiAo event during 2019 appears unlikely. Updates on the El NiAo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition will be provided regularly by WMO and the major climate centres.

Resources:

Rainfall forecast http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/542

Temperature Forecast http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/543

GIS data files http://geoportal.icpac.net/layers/?limit=100&offset=0

Onset Dates http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/544

Onset Date Anomaly http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/545

Cessation Dates http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/546

Cessation Date Anomaly http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/547

Dry Spell Days http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/548

Dry Spell Days anomaly http://geoportal.icpac.net/documents/549

Detailed reports with impacts and advisories for the following sectors will be released in the coming days:

Agriculture and food security Livestock Water and Energy Conflict early warning Disaster risk management Health Media

Contact us

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Note to the Editors

Global Climate Centres under the coordination of World Meteorological Organisation will continue to provide status of global climate including El Nin o updates. ICPAC will also provide regional updates on regular basis while the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will provide detailed national and sub-national updates.

About ICPAC

ICPAC is the specialised IGAD institution which covers IGAD members’ states plus Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa. ICPAC extends its services to four main sectors including water and Energy, agriculture and Food Security, health and disaster risk management.

The Fifty Second Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF52) was convened by ICPAC together with its participating NMHSs and sponsored by EC through AfDB and World Bank; hosted by the Government of Ethiopia, to formulate a consensus regional climate outlook for the June to September 2019 rainfall season over the GHA region.

The GHA region comprises of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda including Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.

Source: Intergovernmental Authority on Development

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/statement-fifty-second-greater-horn-africa-climate-outlook-forum-ghacof52-27-28-may