Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued: 17 May 2019
The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Specifically parts of Somaliland and the central areas bordering Ethiopia recorded heavy rains that led to flash floods and some damages to infrastructure. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle and Juba continued to increase, reaching the long term mean for the first time since the start of the season.
The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little or no rains are foreseen. The rains are expected to increase further as the week progresses but with lower intensity compared to previous week as seen in (Map 2).
It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations