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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued: 13 May 2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm of total rainfall. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highland over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle continued to increase, while the levels along Juba river dropped slightly. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently below the long term mean for this period of the year.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little no rains are foreseen. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 19 May 2019 shows moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). Heavy rains in Mudug and Galgaduud regions bordering Ethiopia may lead to flash floods.

Given the rainfall forecast, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to increase slightly in the coming week.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations