Somalia Market Update: March 2019 Update (Issued April 23, 2019)

Inflation: SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Compared to one month ago, Consumer Price Index (CPI) mildly increased (2-4%) in March 2019 due to mild increase in cereal prices. Compared to a year ago, CPI declined (by 9%) in southern regions due to lower cereal prices this year while the CPI remained relatively stable in central and northeast.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: CPI declined mildly (3%) in March 2019 compared to a month ago but it is still higher by 15 percent compared to last year (March 2018).

Exchange rate: SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable in most regions of the country in March 2019. Annual comparison indicates that SoSh is losing value in most of SoSh-using areas with the highest depreciation being recorded in northeast Somalia (10%).

SISh-using areas: the local currency in Somaliland exhibited appreciation (4-9%) against USD compared to both last month and a year ago.

Local cereal (white maize, red sorghum and white sorghum) prices mostly increased mildly in March 2019 in most parts of the country. The mild increases is due to low supply as a result of below average Deyr 2018 harvest. Annual comparison still indicates lower prices in March 2019 in most regions.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes in local currency terms in March 2019 in most regions. Similarly, the prices of most food imports either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates in most parts of the country compared to a year ago with an exception of northeast where the prices of these commodities increased moderately (11-18%) due to depreciation of local currency against USD.

Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel mostly exhibited mild monthly changes (by less than +/- 10%) in March 2019 in most regions of the country. Similarly, compared to a year ago (March 2018), livestock prices changed at mild rates (mostly increases) in central, northern and sorghum belt regions due to limited supply of seleable animals. Milk prices exhibited mild monthly changes mostly increases in most regions due to decreased supply in the Jialal (January-March) season. Compared to a year ago, milk prices (camel and cattle) are mostly lower in most regions of the country due to increased milk availability as a result of medium calving in most regions of the country.

Labor (unskilled) wages exhibited mild monthly changes (by less than +/-10%) in March 2019 in most regions of Somalia. Similarly, compared to a year ago (March 2018), labor wages mostly exhibited mild (less than -/+10%) monthly changes in most regions of the country. However, labor wage rates declined moderately (11-16%) in Middle Juba, and Banadir (Bakara) compared to a year ago due to reduced agricultural activities as a result of deteriorated security conditions in Middle Juba and increased competition for labor in Banadir.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained relatively stable or mildly changed (by +/- 1-3kgs/daily wage) in most regions of the country in March 2019. Annual comparison indicates relative stability or mild increases/decreases in most regions of the country.

Similarly, the ToT between local quality goat and cereals exhibited mild monthly changes in most regions of the country. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between goat and cereal in most regions due to higher goat prices and/or lower cereal prices.

Source: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-market-update-march-2019-update-issued-april-23-2019