Somalia Market Update: January 2019 Upate (Issued February 25, 2019)

SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Compared to one month ago, Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained relatively stable in December 2018 (compared to November 2018) and January 2019 (compared to December 2018). Compared to a year ago, CPI declined (by 7-13%) in SouthCentral SoSh using regions due to decreases in cereal prices this year.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: CPI remained relatively stable in December 2018 and January 2019. Annual comparison indicates declines (4-5%) in CPI due to decline in cereal prices.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable in most regions of the country in December 2018 and January 2019.

Annual comparison indicates that SoSh is losing value in most of SoSh-using areas with the highest depreciation being recorded in Northeast (14-16%).

SISh-using areas: the exchange rate between SISh and USD exhibited relative stability compared to both last month and a year ago.

Local cereal (white maize, red sorghum and white sorghum) prices either remained relatively stable or changed at mild rates (by +/- less than 10%) in December 2018 and January 2019 across Somalia. Annual comparison indicates lower prices in December 2018 and January 2019 in most regions due to improved harvests (Gu and/or Deyr) in 2018 compared to last year (2017).

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes in local currency terms in December 2018 and January 2019 in most regions. Compared to one year ago, prices exhibited mild changes (by less than +/- 10%) in most central and southern regions for most food imports while prices have mostly exhibited mild increase in most northern regions, mainly as a result of depreciation of SoSh in these regions.

Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel mostly exhibited mild monthly changes (by less than +/- 10%) in December 2018 and January 2019 in most regions of the country. Compared to a year ago (December 2017 and January 2018), livestock prices were higher in most regions due to improved body conditions as a result of continued availability of pasture and water. Milk prices exhibited mild monthly decreases in most regions. Compared to a year ago, milk prices (camel and cattle) are lower in most regions of the country due to increased milk availability as a result of medium calving.

Labor (unskilled) wages exhibited mild monthly changes (by less than +/-10%) in December 2018 and January 2019 in most regions of Somalia. Compared to a year ago (December 2017 and January 2018), labor wages mostly exhibited increases in most regions of the country due to improved agricultural labor opportunities as a result of improved rainfall performance. However, labor wage rates declined moderately (13-17%) in Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Banadir (Bakara) compared to a year ago due to reduced agricultural activities as a result of delayed Deyr harvest, deteriorated security conditions in Middle Juba and increased competition for labor in Banadir (Bakara).

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained relatively stable or changed (by +/- 1-2kgs/daily wage) in most regions of the country in December 2018 and January 2019. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between daily labor and cereals in most regions due to increased labor wages and/or decrease in cereal prices. Similarly, the ToT between local quality goat and cereals exhibited mild monthly changes in most regions of the country. Annual comparison indicates higher ToT between goat and cereal due to increased goat prices and/or decrease in cereal prices.

Source: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-market-update-january-2019-upate-issued-february-25-2019