Multiple areas of Somalia face a Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) amid an exceptionally severe drought, soaring staple food prices, and heightened conflict and insecurity. The April to June gu rains are performing very poorly, and millions of people are experiencing intensifying hunger due to widespread livestock emaciation and death, low cropping levels, and extreme declines in household purchasing power. Representative survey data collected by FSNAU and WFP in late April/early May also indicate an alarming increase in child acute malnutrition and child and adult mortality levels in southern Somalia, despite the delivery of food assistance and community support during Ramadan and Eid. While Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes – with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) – are projected in the worst-affected areas through September, there is high concern that more extreme acute food insecurity could occur if crop and livestock production fails, food prices rise even further, and food aid does not reach populations in need. Little to no rainfall is forecast through early June, and the chances of crop and livestock production failure are rising.
Furthermore, weather forecast models are signaling an elevated likelihood that the October to December 2022 deyr rains will also be below average, setting the stage for a record-breaking five-season drought. These events would only increase the severity and magnitude of food insecurity, with over seven million people likely to need food aid into 2023. A sustained scale-up of humanitarian aid is needed to save lives and livelihoods and avert the Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).
Much of Somalia has received minimal rainfall during the peak of the gu rainfall season, with current deficits amounting to 40-70 percent below average. The season ranks among the top three driest on record across northern, central, and parts of southern Somalia (Figure 1), where the severity of drought conditions mirrors 2010/2011 and 2016/2017. The availability of vegetation at this point in the gu season is among the lowest recorded in at least 10 years across most of the country, and water scarcity is widespread. In several regions, the price of purchasing potable water from water trucks has surged by 30-65 percent compared to April of last year, while water prices have doubled in parts of Bakool and Galgaduud regions.
The drought, exacerbated by an uptick in conflict and insecurity in south-central Somalia since late 2021, has exacted a severe toll on household income from livestock production while limiting household capacity to plant cereal or cash crops for the gu harvest in July. Pasture and fodder are scarce, and most households can no longer afford to purchase grains to hand-feed weak livestock. As a result, livestock emaciation and excess livestock deaths are widely reported, especially in Bakool, Gedo, central Somalia, and parts of northern Somalia, where livestock mortality rates will likely reach at least 10-30 percent by September. Many displaced rural households have lost or sold most or all their livestock. In agropastoral and riverine areas, area planted and crop growth are far below normal due to the poor rains, the displacement of households away from their farms, and farmers’ reduced ability to afford seeds, irrigation, and other inputs. Reduced demand for agricultural labor has also driven down wages by as much as 25-35 percent for poor households who typically rely on this income source. Overall, the gu cereal harvest will likely be 40-60 percent below average, making it the fifth consecutive below-average harvest. In 2011 and 2017, the gu cereal harvest was only the second and third consecutive below-average harvest, respectively.
Source: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit