Eastern Africa – Seasonal Monitor: June-September 2022 Seasonal Progress & October-December Outlook, September 2022

▪ Dry and hot weather conditions persisted over the June-August period worsening the impacts of drought in Somalia, Kenya and southern Ethiopia.

▪ The exceptionally long drought, amplified by warmer-than-normal temperatures, has devastated livelihoods, debilitated livestock herds, compromised crop production and vegetation regeneration, heightened water scarcity, lowered household incomes, and increased human displacement especially in Somalia.

▪ In equatorial areas of the region, the first season crop harvests are generally below-average/poor and delayed following the depressed March-May rains that delayed crop planting and development. This has prolonged the lean season period in some areas while the harvests are not enough to meet household consumption needstillthe next harvests.

▪ Significant vegetation deficits and water shortages continue to impact on livestock production in drought affected areas, increasing livestock migration or longer-than-usual trekking distances in search of water and pastures. The deteriorating livestock body condition has significantly impacted on livestock production and productivity, and reduced household incomes from livestock sales thereby driving huge consumption gaps and malnutrition amongchildren.

▪ Over 9.2 million livestock deaths have occurred in the drought affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, eroding the assets depended upon by communities for livelihoods.

▪ The combined effect of drought and other shocks has worsened the food insecurity and malnutrition in drought affected areas, and increased the risk of famine in parts of Somalia. An estimated 18 million people are severely food insecure (IPC 3+) with likelihood to increase over the Oct-Dec period as food security deteriorates and drought conditions intensify and spread toKaramojaand northern Uganda.

▪ The on-going June-September rains in northern areas of the region are normal to wetter-than-normal in many areas allowing for crop production, regeneration of pastures and vegetation, and replenishment of water resources.

▪ This is in exception of central South Sudan, and parts of Ethiopia (SNNPR, central, southern Afar, and eastern Oromia) that benefit from both Belg and Meher seasonal rains where rains have so far been below-average. The depressed rains in Ethiopia is of concern as it follows a poor Belg season that affected crop and livestock production,and increasedfood and nutrition insecurity.

▪ The wetter-than-normal rains have resulted in flooding in Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, several areas of Ethiopia, southwest and eastern Uganda affecting populations, properties, infrastructure, and social facilities. Over 286,000 people are affected in Sudan. In addition, the floods have hindered agricultural activities or damaged growing crops, which is likely to influence the seasonal harvests and food availability in coming months.

▪ A fifth consecutive poor season looms in eastern Horn of Africa over the Oct-Dec period according to seasonal weather forecasts. This will aggravate the prevailing drought conditions, tighten food production among households that depend on the Oct-Dec rains for main cereal production, prolonging the period of food inadequacy until the next harvests in mid-2023. This will push more people into an alarming/severe food and nutrition insecurity (including risk of famine in parts of Somalia), and negativelivelihood coping situation.

▪ There is need for stakeholders in the various sectors to sustain/upscale humanitarian responses, enhance anticipatory actions such as forecast based financing (FbF), and strengthen resilience building to cushion the already affected populations from further impacts of drought.

 

Source: World Food Programme

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